Modelling construction time by discrete Markov chains
Abstract
Modelling construction time by discrete Markov chains
Incoming article date: 11.12.2023Often in practice, construction times are estimated using deterministic methods, for example, based on a network schedule of the construction plan with deterministic values for the timing of specific works. This approach does not reflect the reality associated with the probabilistic nature of risks and leads to a systematic underestimation of the time and, as a consequence, the cost of construction. The research proposes to use a Markov discrete heterogeneous Markov chain to assess the risks of non-completion of construction in due time. The states of the Markov process are proposed to correspond to the stages of construction of the object. Probabilities of system transitions from state to state are proposed to be estimated on the basis of empirical data on previously implemented projects and/or expertly, taking into account the risks characterising construction conditions in dynamics. The dynamic model of the construction plan development allows to determine such characteristics as: the probability of the construction plan realisation within the established terms, the probability that the object will ever be completed, the time of construction to the stage of completion with a given degree of reliability; unconditional probabilities of the system states (construction stage) in a given period of time relative to the beginning of construction. The model has been tested. The proposed model allows us to estimate the time of completion of construction, to assess the risks of failure to complete construction within the established deadlines in the planned conditions of construction realisation, taking into account the dynamics of risks.
Keywords: construction time, risk assessment, markov model, discrete Markov chain, inhomogeneous random process