Multi-agent stochastic model of the perception of political processes students of the Chechen Republic (according 2015)
Abstract
Multi-agent stochastic model of the perception of political processes students of the Chechen Republic (according 2015)
Incoming article date: 25.06.2016This paper is the final in monitoring and modeling of socio-political attitudes of students of the Chechen Republic, which were made on the basis of a survey conducted in mid-2015. Bringing together previously obtained results on the calculation and analysis of affective and cognitive components, revealed the full hierarchical structure of indicators of political attitudes. On the first level identified six parameters, which are reduced to three on the second one, and a two-dimensional matrix of conflict on the third level. The last index formed by the affective perception of the political order and an indicator of generalized political activity. The total conflict index was calculated on the basis of these components, by using psycho-semantic model developed on the basis of the concept of typicality, in the framework of catastrophe theory. The index of overall conflict potential is modeled by a random variable. Their distribution functions were determined by Monte Carlo simulation using agent - oriented simulation package Any Logic. The analysis and simulation showed in the whole group (81%) low level of contentiousness of 0.1-0.2 (for straight-line scale from 0 to +1). The high value of this parameter (0, 8-0, 9) was observed in a small proportion (13%), which is the subgroup of risk regarding possible development of the protests.
Keywords: students, Grozny, the cognitive component of the conflict potential, a parallel hierarchical structure, the emotional perception of political order, matrix, distribution function, multivariate analysis